Is There Any Possibility of a Coup Attempt in Germany?

The question of whether there is any possibility of a coup attempt in Germany has been a topic of ongoing discussion, particularly with the recent failed Russian propaganda efforts in the country. Here’s an exploration of the dynamics and factors that make such an event unlikely.

Current Stability and Civil Society Dynamics

While it's possible that some small units of the army and the police may attempt a military putsch, these actions are unlikely to succeed given the robust civil society response that would immediately follow. Civil society in Germany is highly organized and responsive to crises, and it would quickly isolate those groups involved in such a plot. The trade unions would likely call for a general strike, ensuring that most of the population does not follow the orders of the putschists.

Facing such opposition from civil society, the putschists would struggle to gain any real power. Furthermore, there is a general consensus among the majority of the army and the police that a coup would not be supported. This consensus is especially strong, with the belief that even the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party, which represents about 15% of the population, would not fully support a military coup. In fact, over 50% of AfD supporters do not endorse such an action. Thus, the forces required to sustain a coup are not present.

The Role of Foreign Influence and Domestic Political Landscape

The recent failure of Russian propaganda efforts in Germany suggests that the government and civil society here are vigilant and well-prepared. However, foreign influence cannot be entirely ruled out. Russian interference in German affairs has certainly highlighted the need for continued monitoring of media and political developments. Any future attempts to destabilize the country would likely face the same intense scrutiny and strong reactions from the populace.

As a Turk with extensive knowledge of coups and coup plots, I must point out that the current situation in Germany makes such an attempt highly unlikely. The Bundeswehr, the German armed forces, has a well-organized hierarchy that would not allow such a small group to initiate a coup. Furthermore, the vast majority of the military and police would actively oppose any such actions.

Additionally, the German public is surprisingly leftist in their thinking. Frequent visits and interaction with Germans in various settings, especially among the youth, have confirmed this. Moreover, the military is not a revered institution here; it is seen more as a professional service rather than a power institution. This societal opinion further diminishes the likelihood of a successful coup in Germany.

Conclusion

While it is always important to remain vigilant and not rule out the possibility of a coup completely, the current political, social, and military landscape in Germany makes a coup attempt unrealistic. The forces of civil society, including the trade unions and the general public, would mobilize swiftly and effectively to prevent such an event. Any potential threat would be quickly neutralized, reinforcing the stability and democratic nature of the German state.