Mass Shootings and Their Statistical Context in America

Mass shootings, as typically defined by the unauthorized use of firearms to kill multiple people in a single incident, are an extremely rare phenomenon. Unless you live in a gang-infested area, the odds of being killed in a rampage mass shooting are roughly equivalent to those of being struck by lightning. In places dominated by gang activity, the likelihood of being killed in such an event, while not zero, is still considered low due to the nature of gang violence.

Gang shootouts, often characterized by indiscriminate shooting into a crowd, are statistically more common among gang members. These events, often referred to as "mass shootings," are typically swift and untargeted, with the majority of victims being innocent bystanders. The proficiency of gang members is often questioned, as they are frequently described as poor marksmen who rarely take the time to aim.

Frequency of Mass Shootings

Mass shootings were notably rare during the Obama administration, where periods of several years passed without a single rampage shooting incident. However, this trend shifted during the Obama years, as these types of events became more frequent. Under the Trump administration, the frequency decreased, although these attacks were still much more common than they had been in the preceding decades. Prior to the Obama era, there were instances of rampages spanning decades, with sometimes as little as 10 to 20 years between such incidents. Despite this, the history of mass killings extends well beyond the advent of firearms, with many recorded instances of violent rampages dating back to the 1500s.

The deadliest rampage killings to date, using only or primarily edged weapons, occurred in Africa and Japan. This highlights that edged weapons can be just as deadly as firearms in the hands of skilled individuals. Arson has also played a significant role in mass murders, with the lives lost through this method eclipsing those lost to firearms in the past 150 years. Other deadly weapons include bombs, which also pose a substantial threat.

Statistical Analysis

Considering the data from the FBI and the CDC, less than 8.05% of murders are from mass shootings in the typical year over the last 15 years. When the timeframe is expanded to 50 years, this percentage drops to around 0.001. For the past 100 years, it is even more minimal at around 0.0001%.

This puts into perspective the relative frequency of these events compared to other forms of violent crime. Comparatively, suicides and accidents account for approximately 60% of all American deaths. Rifles and long guns, including so-called assault rifles (a subset category), account for about 4% of gun-related deaths, according to figures from the FBI and CDC, and not from the NRA, which often presents biased data.

In conclusion, while mass shootings remain a traumatic and concerning aspect of society, statistically, they are an exceptional and rare occurrence. The vast majority of violent deaths are due to other factors, including suicides and accidents, which together account for the majority of American fatalities. Understanding these statistics is crucial for policymakers, advocates, and the general public in crafting effective strategies to address these complex issues.