Terry McAuliffe's 2021 Virginia Governor Race: Where Do We Stand?

One can only hope that former Governor of Virginia Terry McAuliffe has an easier time winning the 2021 Virginia Governor's race. Some of us still remember his last tenure as governor, where despite his national prominence in Democratic circles, his role in state-level politics was questionable. McAuliffe, known for his strong ties with the Democratic National Committee and national-level politics, seemed somewhat disconnected from the Virginia constituency outside of election times.

Initial Predictions and Expectations

Initially, entering this race, I expected the Republicans to have no chance in the monetary battle. With President Biden carrying Virginia by 10 points, it seemed that even a victory by 5 points would be considered a good omen for the Republicans heading into the 2022 midterm elections. Virginia, after all, was no longer a battleground state and was rapidly becoming a Democrat stronghold at a dizzying pace. However, recent developments have challenged this perception.

Recent Polling and Dynamics

Throughout the race, Terry McAuliffe has held a steady lead, with polls showing him with a consistent margin of around 8 points. Yet, the past two weeks have brought startling changes. Polls conducted by Monmouth, a liberal-leaning polling firm, showed McAuliffe leading by 5 points. On the other hand, Trafalgar, a conservative-leaning polling firm, indicated a tied race. Averaging these recent polls yields a noticeable gap of just 2.5 points in favor of McAuliffe. But, when we account for overestimation of Republican candidates in 2020 polls, this margin becomes even more narrow.

Factors Influencing the Race

The pivotal factor in this race, in my view, is President Biden's approval ratings. Currently, they are hovering around 45-46, following a period of significant decline over the past two weeks. Virginia, famously voting about 6 points left of the national average, is closely tied to Biden's performance. Thus, if Biden's approval ratings remain above 45 through election day, it is reasonable to predict that McAuliffe would retain his lead. However, other critical elements, such as voter turnout, will also play significant roles.

Voter Turnout and Demographic Dynamics

Factors like voter turnout among non-white voters, who comprised 33% of the electorate in 2020, will be crucial. Non-white voters supported Biden by only about 26% in 2020. Youngkins, the Republican candidate, needs to secure at least 57% of the white vote and likely a margin closer to 59% if he underperforms with non-white voters. He must also secure around 30% of the non-white vote. Additionally, the projected electorate makeup, with an expected 70% of white voters, marks a realistic target considering historical drop-offs in non-white voter turnout during midterms.

Conclusion

The 2021 Virginia Governor's race is incredibly competitive, with the outcome hinging on President Biden's approval ratings and voter turnout patterns. As we approach the election, it is clear that this race is not yet in the bag for Terry McAuliffe. Both candidates are strategizing to deftly navigate the complex political landscape, with demographic voting patterns serving as a crucial battleground.