The Conservative Republican Disconnect: Understanding Trump’s Support

The rise of Donald Trump as a prominent political figure has brought about deep divisions within the Republican party. Historically, conservatives believed that their values would always be the right path and that adherence would protect the nation economically and militarily. However, this belief has faced significant challenges and is no longer as convincing as it once was.

The True Strength of Trump’s Support

One of the major misconceptions about Trump’s support is that he retains strong backing from conservative voters. In reality, his broadest support comes from white males who have not completed college, a demographic that trails Clinton by 8 percentage points. Surveys indicate that less than 20% of all potential voters, regardless of their affiliations, will definitely vote for Trump. This level of backing does not reflect the widespread support often attributed to him.

A Reality Check for Conservative Republicans

Conservative Republicans have long believed that only they and their values are correct. They have consistently advocated for the implementation of their conservative values, expecting these to lead to economic prosperity and strong military positions. However, the administrations of conservative Republicans, such as George W. Bush, have delivered unexpectedly. Despite the initial wins in two wars, the U.S. entered a prolonged conflict that stretched for years, and the economy experienced the worst crash since the Great Depression. Recent administrations have continued to block President Obama’s proposals, while failing to deliver much in return for their constituents.

The rise of Donald Trump reveals a significant mismatch between the expectations of conservative Republicans and the reality delivered by their leaders. Post-election studies by the GOP are likely to provide explanations for their loss, but they are unlikely to acknowledge a fundamental misalignment of values and outcomes.

Beyond the Republican Problem: Economic Disillusionment

Donald Trump's rise is not solely a Republican problem but a broader issue of growing disillusionment within the American electorate. The Democratic primary faced significant challenges from Bernie Sanders, reflecting deep-seated concerns in the electorate. The voters are now more concerned than ever about economic inequality and the impact of international trade.

Economic disparity and trade have become significant issues. While the benefits of trade are often spread thinly among a larger population, the losses are concentrated on a smaller group of people in specific industries. This concentration of pain makes the negative impacts of trade more visible and impactful. The frustration resulting from this pain has driven many voters to support candidates like Trump, Sanders, and even third-party candidates like Gary Johnson and Jill Stein.

The Polling Reality

Recent polling shows that third-party candidates like Gary Johnson and Jill Stein have achieved levels of support that far exceed previous elections. While the Libertarian and Green parties have never garnered more than 2% of the vote combined in past cycles, these candidates are now polling at 10% and 5% respectively. This significant increase in support signals a more widespread dissatisfaction with the political status quo.

It is clear that economic issues are no longer confined to one party. Both the Democratic and Republican parties are now grappling with these challenges and even begin to advocate for more protectionist policies. This shift reflects a recognition that traditional bipartisan cooperation on international trade has become untenable due to public pressures.

Donald Trump’s rise is not an isolated incident but a symptom of broader societal changes. It is a call for the political establishment to address the underlying economic issues that have driven so many Americans to question the current political system.

In conclusion, the support for Donald Trump, while significant, is not a reflection of a strong conservative base. Instead, it is a symptom of growing economic disillusionment and a desire for change. The Republican party and the broader American electorate must recognize these underlying issues and address them to avoid further political unrest.