The Feasibility of Resupplying Ukrainian Troops in Mariupol

The situation of the Ukrainian troops holding out in Mariupol is a pressing concern for the international community. Given the current context and geopolitical realities, the resupply of Ukrainian forces is not as straightforward as one might hope. This article explores the challenges and possible approaches to addressing this humanitarian and military issue.

Current Challenges and Improbability of Resupply

Resupplying Ukrainian troops in Mariupol faces significant hurdles. The overwhelming majority of Ukrainian forces, including those of the Azov Battalion, are stationed inside the Azovstal plant. Additionally, President Zelenskyy has strategically refrained from attempting to resupply these troops or relieve the siege. The surreal mix of political and military strategy suggests that any attempt to resupply these troops would not be without political ramifications for Ukraine.

The Role of Azov Battalion and Political Constraints

The Azov Battalion, known for its ultranationalist leanings, represents a complex political and military group. Their presence in Mariupol serves as a political liability for Zelenskyy. The situation could be instrumentalized politically by Zelenskyy to portray symptoms of Russian aggression. Thus, any strategic move to resupply or assist these forces could be seen as a political concession to Russian forces. Consequently, attempts to resupply or relieve the siege are highly improbable and fraught with risk.

Naval and Strategic Considerations

The cessation of the siege and resupply of Mariupol would require a significant military expedition, particularly a robust naval operation to neutralize Russian naval assets. The current progress in the sinking of Raptor patrol boats, while positive, is insufficient. The need to sink every Russian seagoing asset in the Black Sea is non-negotiable, as the shallow waters off Mariupol require deep-water access for naval vessels, including submarines.

The Kherson Strait and Russian Naval Control

Another complicating factor is the strategic control of the Kerson Strait by Russia. This 1.9-mile wide, 59 feet deep strait, guarded by a heavily fortified bridge, presents a formidable barrier. Any attempt to traverse this strait without neutralizing Russian naval and strategic assets is virtually impossible. Efforts to bypass the strait would necessitate significantly more resources and a substantial reduction in Russian naval presence, which is unlikely.

Humanitarian Concerns and Political Realities

The situation of Ukrainian soldiers in Mariupol is dire, with thousands of soldiers recently surrendering to Russian forces. The reasoning behind their continued survival is likely due to tactical manipulation by the Russians, who find these prisoners useful. The dilemma of humanitarian aid and military strategy is further complicated by political considerations. The logical move would be to isolate and besiege Russian forces both east and west, creating a situation where Russian forces would have to fight on multiple fronts. However, such a move is fraught with risks and requires substantial military resources.

Multiple Frontwarfare and Air Support

While a strategy of cutting Russian supply lines could be effective, it necessitates extensive military and air support. Ukraine, however, may have more pressing concerns in other areas, complicating this approach. A more immediate solution would have been to supply the troops via submarine and even through strategic airdrops. The delay in such actions is seen as a critical mistake, similar to not sending troops alongside weapons. Given the aggressive nature of Putin, who has demonstrated a willingness to escalate the conflict to other fronts, a more assertive stance is required.

Conclusion: The Need for Immediate and Aggressive Interventions

The status quo of the Ukrainian troops in Mariupol is untenable. The geopolitical reality and military constraints make a straightforward resupply mission nearly impossible. However, the world cannot stand idly by as Russian aggression continues. Immediate, aggressive, and decisive actions are needed to support Ukrainian forces and to push back against Russian aggression. The stakes are high, and Putin's actions reflect a willingness to escalate the conflict, necessitating a robust and coordinated international response.

Key Points:

Political viability of resupply Necessity of neutralizing Russian naval assets The potential of multiple front warfare The humanitarian situation of Ukrainian prisoners Aggressive interventions and the need for international support