The Road to Extended Lifespan: Aubrey de Grey’s Vision vs. Reality

Aubrey de Grey is a prominent advocate for the extension of human lifespan through biomedical advancements. He envisions a future where comprehensive control over the aging process is achieved within the next couple of decades. This article explores the potential of de Grey’s vision, the current state of biomedical research, and the improbabilities associated with his timeline.

Aubrey de Grey’s Vision

Aubrey de Grey is a strong proponent of the potential for significant life extension through biomedical advancements. He argues that with sufficient research and investment, therapies addressing the various causes of aging could be developed, leading to comprehensive control over the aging process. According to de Grey, the timeline for achieving such control remains highly uncertain, with some researchers suggesting that significant progress in understanding and treating age-related diseases is possible, but the complexity of aging itself poses substantial challenges.

Current State of Biomedical Research

Advancements in fields such as regenerative medicine, gene therapy, and biotechnology offer promising developments. For example, senolytics drugs target senescent cells, and stem cell therapies have seen notable progress. However, translating this research into widely available treatments remains a work in progress. The scientific community is divided on when breakthroughs envisioned by de Grey might be achieved.

My Perspective on the Timeline

I agree with Aubrey de Grey’s assessment and believe there is a 60% chance that we are only 10-20 years away from adding an extra 20/25 years of healthy life. For a person currently aged 65 in good health, the probability of living to a great age is around 50%, while for someone in their 50s, it is somewhat better than 60%. The reason for this slight variance in my thinking is that while de Grey works on a 15-16 year timeline, I believe we might be slightly quicker due to the rapid progress in certain technologies and the anticipated role of senolytics or gene therapies.

Status Quo in Biomedical Research

Advancements have been made, such as the development of senolytics drugs targeting senescent cells and advancements in stem cell therapies. However, translating these findings into widely available treatments is a work in progress. The scientific community remains divided on when we might see the kind of breakthroughs de Grey envisions. As of August 2023, significant progress has been made in understanding and treating age-related diseases, but the complexity of aging itself poses substantial challenges.

Key Turning Points and Technologies

Understanding the incremental gains in life extension technologies is crucial. The birth year 1980 is significant because most people born in that year still have 45 to 50 years to live. By 1980, the technology is likely to be adequate to add at least 20/25 years of healthy life. I believe we will reach this point by the 2030s, and in the second half of the 21st century, we will add the same number of years again, if not more. The year 1980 is crucial because anyone born around that year or after has an 80% chance or better of living to 115 or more. The younger you are, the better your chances.

Technologies involved in life extension will achieve incremental gains over time, and not all of them will be implemented simultaneously. This means that comprehensive control over the aging process will never be a single, sudden breakthrough but rather a series of smaller, cumulative advancements. Understanding these advancements and the timeline is critical for both researchers and the general public.