Understanding Immortality: Life Expectancy without Aging

The concept of achieving immortality through the control of aging has been a subject of fascination and debate for centuries. As we consider a world where our biological aging can be halted, fundamentally altering how we live and die, the question arises: what life expectancy might individuals achieve if accidents were the only cause of mortality?

Current Statistics and Probabilities

In my home country of Sweden, for individuals aged 45-64 years old, the annual death rate due to accidents and injuries is approximately 66 deaths per 100,000 men. This rate translates to a 50% probability of living for 1,049 years without any changes in risk. The likelihood of reaching 10,000 years is around 0.1, and the probability of living for 100,000 years is essentially zero, approximately 0.0000000000000000000000000002.

Immutability and Physical Forces

For one to be considered truly immortal, the cessation of all forms of physical force is necessary. Accidents and diseases are both results of physical forces affecting the body, albeit with varying intensities. It is illogical to suggest that a person can be killed by an accident but not by a disease. Both are forms of physical impact on the human body.

Mortality Laws and the Twilight Zone

The Gompertz–Makeham law of mortality offers some insight into the probabilities of lifespan and the impact of aging on mortality rates. According to this law, the human mortality rate is composed of a constant rate and a rate that increases exponentially with age. The law helps us understand the different causes of death that are more common at various stages of life, such as infectious diseases, accidents, homicide, and suicide, as well as the natural disasters that can impact younger populations.

Rather than using aging as the limiting factor, we must consider how the cessation of aging would affect these mortality rates. With an end to biological aging, other factors such as accidents and diseases would likely become the primary causes of death. A study of historical texts, such as the Twilight Zone episode, also offers a speculative view. In the episode, a character who achieved immortality by avoiding any form of deadly accident was eventually brought down by an unexpected event, highlighting the unpredictable nature of mortality.

Future of Life Expectancy

Assuming biological aging can be stopped, the life expectancy of individuals would drastically increase. The Gompertz–Makeham law suggests that the reduction in the rate of mortality could significantly extend life spans. However, it is crucial to understand that the relationship between these factors is highly complex and may not hold true for an older population.

For younger individuals, death can often be attributed to infectious diseases, accidents, homicide, suicide, and natural disasters. These factors would still be significant even in a world without aging, and individuals might develop new forms of behaviors or take on more risk to avoid boredom. In a future where work is mostly automated, life span is not limited by aging, and the rewards of life rely on the ability to take risks, individuals might be drawn to engage in more dangerous activities, thereby affecting their life expectancy.

Unfortunately, we cannot accurately predict how long such a person might live. The “young old” might seek excitement and risk to maintain their vibrancy and relevance, while others might simply continue to maintain a normal lifestyle and life expectancy. While the life expectancy would undoubtedly extend far beyond the current limits set by biological aging, the precise numerical value remains uncertain and speculative.

Final Thoughts

In conclusion, the idea of achieving immortality by controlling aging opens up numerous possibilities regarding life expectancy. However, with accidents and diseases still present as leading causes of death, the exact life span of individuals would depend on a multitude of factors, including psychological and social influences. Future research and developments in technology will undoubtedly play a crucial role in shaping our understanding and ability to extend human life.