Understanding the High Mortality Rate of COVID-19: Testing, Symptoms, and Complications

The mortality rate of Coronavirus, or COVID-19, continues to be a topic of intense discussion and concern. One of the more alarming statistics is that some countries report mortality rates as high as 10%. This high rate is not an isolated phenomenon but is a result of several factors, including the undercounting of cases and deaths, the varying severity of symptoms among patients, and the rapid progression of the disease. This article aims to provide insights into these factors and address why some countries are reporting high death rates despite the majority of patients experiencing mild to moderate symptoms.

Introduction to Coronavirus Mortality Rates

Some of the reported COVID-19 mortality rates are as high as 10%. This high death rate can be misinterpreted as the disease being exceptionally lethal. However, this is often a result of undercounting cases and deaths in many countries. Testing capacity and policies heavily influence the data we see. For instance, if a country has not conducted extensive testing, the reported case counts might be extremely low, leading to a higher apparent death rate.

Factors Contributing to High Death Rates

Case Counts and Undercounting
In many countries, the official case counts of COVID-19 are often undercounted. Policies in place, such as only testing those critically ill enough to require hospitalization, can significantly reduce the number of reported cases. Additionally, deaths are generally harder to undercount, but in some regions, the count is also relatively low. This disparity between case counts and death counts can lead to inflated mortality rates.

Variability in Symptoms Severity
The high mortality rate can also be attributed to the variability in symptoms among patients. Most patients with COVID-19 experience mild to moderate symptoms, while only a fraction suffer from severe symptoms. This distribution can lead to higher mortality rates when the percentage of severely ill patients is high. For example, if 20% of cases are severe and half of them die, the mortality rate is 10%. If 30% of the cases are severe and half of them die, the mortality rate is 15%. This demonstrates how a concentration of severe cases can skew the mortality rate statistic.

Comparing Mortality Rates with Recovery Rates

Understanding the Difference Between Mortality and Fatality Rates
The mortality rate refers to the number of deaths among the entire population, even those who were not infected. In contrast, the case fatality rate is the proportion of people who die among those who are infected. The case fatality rate is a more accurate reflection of the disease's lethality. Unfortunately, it is difficult to determine the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) because it requires counting all infected individuals, both those who were diagnosed and those who were not.

Current Preliminary Case Fatality Rates (CFR)
As of April 06, 2020, 15:51 GMT, there were 1,297,239 confirmed cases worldwide. Of these, 344,095 had an outcome, with 71,276 resulting in death and 272,819 in recovery. In the ongoing cases, over 46,000 are in critical/serious condition. The current preliminary case fatality rate is 21%. However, as more cases have outcomes, this rate can change, either increasing or decreasing.

Conclusion

Understanding the high mortality rate of COVID-19 requires a nuanced approach that considers multiple factors, including undercounting, symptom severity, and the rapid progression of the disease. While the current mortality rates might seem alarming, they are influenced by various biases and factors. The most accurate way to measure the true fatality of the disease is through the infection fatality rate (IFR), which, while harder to estimate, provides a more comprehensive picture of the disease's impact.

Continuous monitoring and reporting of cases and deaths, along with improved testing and tracing protocols, are essential for reducing mortality rates and providing accurate public health information.