WWII Alterative Scenario: If Russia and Germany Stood as Allies

Would history have played out differently if Russia and Germany had continued their uneasy alliance beyond the initial non-aggression pact? This thought experiment presents fascinating possibilities, challenging the commonly held narrative that the 2nd World War would have concluded in a much different manner had Hitler and Stalin chosen to work together.

Background and Initial Cooperation

Between 1939 and 1941, Germany and the Soviet Union were at the center of a fragile alliance. They had signed a non-aggression pact in 1939 that allowed them to divide Eastern Europe. While it appeared a partnership, the trust was never truly established. The pact was primarily a strategic arrangement where Germany imported Soviet grain, petroleum, and nonferrous ores, while the USSR required German machine tools and finished weapon designs.

However, the non-aggression pact began to unravel by early 1941. The Soviet Union's demands on Finland threatened to impede Germany's access to nickel, a vital resource for the German armaments industry. The seizure of Bessarabia by the Soviets posed a significant risk to Germany’s access to Romanian oil, which was essential for their military industry. The Soviets also attempted to move into the Balkans, which would have cut off essential bauxite, chrome, and copper supplies crucial for Germany's war efforts.

Scenario: Operation Sea Lion or a Naval Blockade

Imagine a scenario where Operation Sea Lion, the invasion of Britain, was replaced by a naval blockade. Germany might have focused on building around 300 U-boats to encircle Great Britain. This blockade, modeled after Germany's strategic military nosebleed raids, could have forced Britain to capitulate. The blockade would tighten, with Germany dominating Malta, the Mediterranean, and the Middle East, securing oil supplies for both Italy and the German military. This shift would have given Germany and the USSR even more control over the region, reducing the need for further territorial expansion.

Aftermath and Global Impact

Had Operation Sea Lion not occurred and Germany avoiding further military expansion, the focus might have shifted towards maintaining the status quo in Europe. German troops might have marched all the way to the Urals mountains, as German forces were not capable of stopping at predetermined lines. The scale and impact of the Battle of Stalingrad might have seen different outcomes. Instead of a devastating loss for the Soviets, they might have considered peace terms after significant devastation. This pivot in strategy would have led to a longer war but potentially different military and political dynamics in Europe.

The non-Aggression pact could have lasted, but it would have been under constant strain. Both nations would have found themselves in perpetual tension, with each small move potentially triggering broader conflict. The lack of direct military engagements on the scales seen in the Battle of Kursk could have seen the war dragging on, with each nation focusing on economic and industrial production to maintain their advantages.

Conclusion

The 2nd World War would have looked very different if Russia and Germany had continued their alliance. Instead of Operation Barbarossa, we might have seen a prolonged and perhaps less violent conflict with both nations focusing more on securing their existing territorial gains and resources. This scenario highlights the complexity and uncertainty of historical events and the potential for different outcomes based on small changes in strategic decisions.