What If Mary Tudor’s Twin Brother Had Survived?

The historical scenario of Mary Tudor, daughter of Henry VIII, having a twin brother raises intriguing possibilities. Given the realities of twin births in the 16th century, the likelihood of their successful development is low, but let's explore the hypothetical outcomes if both infants had managed to survive.

Infant Survival and Health

Medical Context and Challenges:

Twins often face higher risks of premature birth and low birth weight, factors that contributed to the challenges faced by Jane and Francis Grey, along with Mary and Elizabeth Tudor. Jane, for instance, died shortly after being placed on the throne, highlighting the fragility of life during that period. Given such medical challenges, both the Tudor children and their mother, Katherine of Aragon, whose pregnancies were marked by complications and losses, would have faced significant obstacles.

Pregnancy and Fasting:

Katherine of Aragon’s pregnancies were particularly difficult, with several instances of stillbirths. Her fasting and dietary restrictions during pregnancy may have adversely affected fetal development. If Mary Tudor had a twin brother, the likelihood of both surviving would be even lower, considering the increased risk of complications during a twin pregnancy.

Historical and Dynastic Revisions

Succession and Dynastic Changes:

If Mary had a twin brother who survived, the entire course of English and Scottish history might have been profoundly altered. The Tudor dynasty could have developed dramatically differently, potentially leading to a different outcome for the Stuarts’ eventual ascension to the throne of England.

Political and Religious Shifts:

Without the interruptions and religious tensions caused by Edward VI’s Protestant reformation, the history of the Church of England and the subsequent conflicts with Catholic Europe would have been significantly altered. The lack of Scottish interference in English affairs might have forged a different path for the eventual union of England and Scotland.

Strategic and International Implications

Catholic Monarchy and Spanish Alliances:

Assuming the brother lived to adulthood, the religious landscape of the Tudor era would have shifted significantly. As a Catholic, he might have sought alliances with Spain, just as Mary did with Philip II. This could have led to a different pattern of expansion and alliance building, potentially combining the Spanish and English crowns.

United Kingdom of Europe:

The hypothetical scenario of a united Spanish and English crown could have led to an unprecedented political and military alliance. With this strengthened position, England, as a Spanish protectorate, could have extended its influence over the Netherlands, German states, and even parts of Italy, excluding the Papal States. This union could have formed a powerful entity that might have even controlled much of Europe, with the potential to predate the modern concept of the European Union by centuries.

Global and Cultural Consequences

Geopolitical and Cultural Shifts:

Such a scenario would have significant implications on a global scale. Without a hostile Protestant England, the powerful throne of the Habsburgs might have controlled both England and Spain, potentially preventing the American Revolution and instead leading to a unified European and American continent under a Spanish-speaking majority.

Expanding European Influence:

With the English and Spanish empires united, a vast array of American territories could have been absorbed, and cultural and linguistic dominance might have extended beyond Europe into the Americas. Unlike the Portuguese, who expanded eastward into Africa, Asia, and Australia, this unified European power base could have maintained a focus on expansion and influence in the Western Hemisphere.

The World in Spanish:

If this alternate history had come to fruition, the language and culture of Europe and the Americas might have been predominantly Spanish, shaping the modern world in terms of language, religion, and governance. The concept of English as the dominant global language might have been entirely different, with Spanish becoming the lingua franca of a united Europe and the Americas.

In conclusion, the survival of Mary Tudor's twin brother would have sent ripples through history, altering dynasties, shifting religious and political landscapes, and potentially reshaping the global order. Such a scenario underscores the contingency of historical events and the profound impact that even minor variations in historical outcomes can have on the world's course.