Will Trump’s Economic Record Tip the 2020 Election His Way?

As 2020 draws closer, the question of whether Donald Trump will secure a landslide victory in the upcoming US Presidential elections often centers around his economic policies and performance. This piece will explore the economic factors that could, or couldn't, play a significant role in the election’s outcome.

Unemployment and the Economy Pre-Virus

Many Trump supporters argue that a landslide victory was already a near certainty pre-virus, given the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years and strong economic growth. However, this argument fails to consider the broader context, including the underlying issues that have persisted and the recent economic challenges.

Economic Conditions Post-Virus

The coronavirus pandemic has significantly altered the economic landscape. Democrats have proposed voting by post, which some fear could be a disaster. Yet, the core issue remains: how does Trump’s economic record play into the election?

The Economy and Its Impact on the Election

While the economy has shown growth, much of it has been characterized as moderate and potentially unsustainable. For instance, job creation numbers and GDP growth have been compared unfavourably to the Obama administration’s terms. The stagnation in real wage growth, partially due to inflation, and the higher national debt during Trump’s tenure are notable points.

The 2018 election saw an economic indicator that many Trump supporters might compare to the recent past, yet voter sentiment did not translate into a landslide win for the incumbent. This suggests that the economy, while a factor, is not a decisive one.

Perceived Boom vs. Actual Performance

A key aspect to consider is the difference between perceived economic success and actual performance. Trump supporters have experienced a sense of economic boom, according to some surveys, particularly along party lines. However, this sentiment was already present in good years and might not necessarily sway undecided voters.

Overall, the economic atmosphere might boost Trump’s support among his base and Republican-leaning independents, but it is unlikely to be the decisive factor in a broader election. More impactful might be the broader voter sentiment, the handling of the pandemic, and the Biden campaign’s messaging.

To sum up, while the economy has had some ups and downs during Trump's presidency, it is unlikely to be the primary driver of a landslide win for the incumbent. Voter sentiment, pandemic management, and political rhetoric will play more prominent roles in determining the election's outcome.